Speaker: Dr. Deepak Rajagopal, Associate Professor, Institute of Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles
Date & Time: 6th December 2022 (Tuesday) from 4:30 pm to 5:30 pm
Title of the paper: “Potential implications of electric vehicles for emissions, energy imports, government revenues and employment: The case of India”
About the Speaker: See the link https://www.ioes.ucla.edu/person/deepak-rajagopal/
Abstract of the paper: Whereas the environmental and micro-economic case for policies supporting electrification of transportation is widely researched, the implications for government revenues, energy imports, and employment are relatively under-explored, which this work aims to address. Holding fixed the cost share, import share, emissions intensity, employment intensity, and the various taxes and tariffs, at present levels, we analyze the potential near to medium term implications of replacing a given share of annual sales of new gasoline cars with electric vehicles. We then analyze the sensitivity of outcomes to alternative strategies (e.g., targeting high usage vehicles and increasing domestic content) and market conditions (e.g., oil prices, battery prices). The total cost of ownership, imports, government revenues, employment and emissions appear to decline due to EVs, and this trend holds under different market and policy scenarios including the elimination of all currently existing EV policies analyzed here. One exception is a drastic fall (by 50%) oil prices relative to current levels, which causes energy imports to increase when battery cells are imported. Targeting high usage vehicles for EV adoption maximizes savings in both life cycle cost and GHG emissions but also causes greater decline in excise tax revenues. The steep decline in tax revenues, a reduction of 80% or more per EV relative to that from ICE across each of the multiple different scenarios analyzed here, suggests the need for further research. Understanding the longer run implications requires relaxing the fixed prices and quantities assumptions employed here.